Since 2019, in the context of the global economic downturn and weak external demand, the Asia-Pacific region and the "Belt and Road" region have also been affected to a certain extent, and the overall economic growth rate is less than that of 2018, and there are large differences among regions。On November 28, the "2020 Annual Economic and Financial Outlook Report" released by the Research Institute of the Bank of China in Beijing believes that the economic growth rate of the Asia-Pacific region is expected to be 4.4 per cent, down 0 per cent from last year.Five percentage points;Growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia was 4.4 per cent, up 0 per cent from last year.2 percentage points;The economic growth rate of China and Europe is 4.1%, down 1 percentage point from last year;Eastern Europe grew by 1.3 per cent, down 1 per cent from last year.One percentage point。
The Belt and Road regional growth differentiation
Asia has become an engine driving global economic growth。Despite the global economic downturn, trade frictions and other uncertainties, Asia's economic growth has slowed down somewhat, but it is still an important force driving global economic growth。In the first three quarters of 2019, real GDP growth in Asia (excluding Japan) was 5.4%、5.2%和5.2%, much higher than the world。In a global external environment of rising geopolitics and increasing risks of policy uncertainties, Asia's fast growth also demonstrates its economic resilience。
The implementation of the Belt and Road infrastructure connectivity and the role of the RCEP agreement in promoting intra-regional trade and investment will inject new momentum into the economic growth of the region。In 2019, driven by the construction of the "Belt and Road" initiative, the construction of financial financing platforms and infrastructure connectivity in the regions along the routes is actively advancing。By the end of October 2019, China had signed 197 Belt and Road cooperation documents with 137 countries and 30 international organizations, and carried out joint financing with more than 70 countries and regions。Solid progress has been made on the China-Laos Railway, the China-Thailand Railway, the Jakarta-Bandar high-speed Railway and the Hungary-Serbia Railway. The Gwadar Port, Hambantota Port, Piraeus Port and Khalifa Port projects are progressing smoothly。In addition, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), initiated by the ten ASEAN countries, has concluded all textual negotiations and virtually all market access negotiations。The conclusion of the agreement will strongly promote the process of economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region and become a model of regional economic and trade cooperation in response to anti-globalization and trade protectionism。Overall, Asia's emerging economies are expected to grow by 6% in 2020, an increase from 2019。
In the context of the global economic downturn, the economic growth rate in the Caucasus and Central Asia is not falling, and expansionary fiscal policies may be the main reason。Affected by global trade tensions and the economic slowdown of major trading partners, the growth rate of oil exports in the Caucasus and Central Asia region declined significantly in 2019。Growth in exports of goods and services to the region's oil and gas exporters is expected to slow to minus one, according to the International Monetary Fund.7%, down 24 percentage points from the previous year。In response to the slowdown in oil revenue growth, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have adopted expansionary fiscal policies to increase countercyclical adjustment。Thanks to expansionary fiscal policies, which boosted domestic infrastructure investment, manufacturing and consumption, non-oil GDP growth in these countries reached 5.0%.1%。Overall, economic growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia region in 2019 will be 4.4 per cent, up 0 per cent from last year.2 percentage points, economic growth in 2020 will be the same as in 2019。
With economic growth in Central and Eastern Europe slowing down, the Belt and Road Initiative will become an important driving force for growth。In 2019, weak global trade weighed on overall European exports and manufacturing。However, due to the boost to exports by the "Belt and Road" and the strong development of domestic private consumption, the economic growth rate of Central and Eastern Europe has declined less。According to the IMF's forecast, in 2019, the GDP growth rate of emerging European economies will be 1.At 8%, the growth rate is 0% higher than that of the developed economies in Europe.Five percentage points。Central and Eastern Europe grew by 4 per cent each.1%和1.3%。In the future, with the steady progress of the "Belt and Road" infrastructure connectivity, the growth rate of investment in Central and Eastern Europe will further increase。
The ten ASEAN countries enjoyed strong growth
In recent years, ASEAN has maintained rapid economic growth, becoming a bright spot in the global economic downturn。In September 2019, the Asian Development Bank's latest estimate of GDP growth for the 10 ASEAN countries in 2019 was 4.5%, a decrease of 0% from 2018.Six percentage points。In the first 10 months of 2019, the ASEAN manufacturing PMI index averaged 49.6, below the 50 line of growth and contraction, indicating that under the influence of weakening external demand, the regional manufacturing industry has been greatly affected。In terms of countries, in the first half of 2019, the GDP of Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines and Vietnam respectively increased by 5 percent year-on-year.1%、2.6%、4.7%、0.6%、5.5%及6.8%。Despite the slowdown, ASEAN remains an important driver of global economic growth。According to the IMF, ASEAN's contribution to global economic growth reached 10% in 2019。In the future, with the formal implementation of the RCEP agreement, ASEAN and regional economies will continue to deepen economic and trade cooperation, share the development dividends of regional integration, and achieve coordinated growth。
Looking ahead to 2020, ASEAN economic growth is expected to pick up to 4. 4 percent due to robust domestic consumption and investment.About 8%, mainly based on the following three reasons: First, ASEAN domestic demand and investment are active, attracting continuous inflows of foreign capital。From 2000 to 2018, foreign investment flows in the ten ASEAN countries grew at an average annual rate of 10%。The continuous inflow of foreign capital will accelerate the development of ASEAN's manufacturing industry and industrial upgrading。Second, low inflation provides room for further easing of monetary policy。Thanks to low oil prices, inflation in ASEAN countries is below their central banks' targets。At present, as the world has entered an era of low interest rates, and the real interest rates of ASEAN members are between 1 and 3 per cent, easy monetary policy will not exacerbate the risk of international capital outflows。Third, the formal implementation of the RCEP agreement and the Belt and Road infrastructure connectivity will inject lasting impetus into ASEAN's economic development。In 2019, ASEAN surpassed the United States to become China's second largest trading partner。At present, half of ASEAN's total imports and exports come from RCEP countries。In the future, the implementation of the RCEP agreement and the Belt and Road infrastructure connectivity will greatly improve the level of trade freedom and logistics facilitation, and provide an institutional platform and practical basis for economic and trade cooperation between ASEAN and other countries。