In the context of the comprehensive recovery of domestic tourism, when the door of recovery of China's outbound tourism will be opened has become the biggest concern of the industry。
Recently, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) released the "Road to Recovery of Chinese Outbound Tourism" report, predicting that Chinese outbound tourism will return to pre-epidemic levels in early 2024。
Before the coronavirus outbreak, China was the world's largest consumer of tourism。According to the United Nations World Tourism Organization (WTO), Chinese tourists spent $254.6 billion overseas in 2019, accounting for nearly a fifth of global tourism spending。From 2009 to 2019, the number of Chinese outbound tourists increased by an average of 12 percent per year.8 percent, compared with a global average of 5.1%。However, this momentum was hit hard by the pandemic in 2020。Hong Kong, Macau and Thailand, once top destinations for Chinese tourists, each saw a drop of 93 percent in 2020.8%、83%和88.6%。
The Economist Intelligence Unit believes that the recovery of Chinese outbound tourism will depend on the promotion of vaccines in China and globally。According to the EIU, China will achieve widespread vaccination (60% of its population) by the second quarter of 2022.。
EIU预测，从中国香港和澳门返回中国内地的检疫要求可能首先被解除。Before the epidemic, about 42 percent of mainland tourists visited Hong Kong and Macau。Given their proximity to the mainland and relative success in controlling the virus, Hong Kong and Macau are expected to return to their pre-epidemic levels of tourism by the second quarter of 2023 and gradually return to their pre-epidemic growth potential。
The recovery of tourist flows to other destinations will take longer。The EIU also does not expect China to relax quarantine requirements for travelers returning from other places immediately after vaccination。Even after the border is opened, it will take about nine months for tourist numbers to return to pre-pandemic levels, as tourist concerns about safety will not go away immediately。The first countries to see a rebound in Chinese tourists will be the advanced economies, as they will be the first to achieve universal vaccination。According to the EIU's timeline, total Chinese outbound tourism flows will exceed pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter of 2024。
So, in the post-epidemic era, who can attract Chinese tourists more？The EIU believes that the preferences of Chinese tourists may change in response to the pandemic, meaning that some countries may gain a higher market share than before。
To this end, the EIU has developed a matrix that scores the top destination countries for Chinese tourists before the pandemic to assess their attractiveness once restrictions are lifted。For safety reasons, Chinese tourists may initially choose to travel closer to home, to destinations in Asia。They are likely to choose destinations that have a good track record in managing the coronavirus, high vaccination rates, and good access to healthcare and medical resources。They may also consider other risk factors, such as whether a country is attractive to foreigners from other high-risk areas。Visa policies in the destination market will be another determining factor。The degree of recognition of Chinese vaccines by other countries will also be a good indicator of their willingness to welcome Chinese tourists。
By calculating the weighted average score of each country in the matrix, the EIU found that once China opens its borders, developed countries in Asia will become the most popular destinations for Chinese tourists。They benefit from the streamlined visa application process for Chinese nationals (pre-pandemic), the relatively low incidence of coronavirus, the low risk posed to these places by other major sources of visitors, and their endorsement of Chinese vaccines。Laos, UAE, Malaysia, Thailand and Maldives score well in the EIU matrix。The UAE and Maldives will benefit earlier as their vaccines are rolled out more quickly。Countries with similar tourism products, such as New Zealand, will benefit。
The EIU believes that Chinese tourists will remain the main driver of global tourism growth in the post-pandemic era, as China has a large population and the middle-income group is expected to grow。However, due to the economic slowdown triggered by the pandemic, low - and middle-income urban households have suffered relatively large income losses。As a result, until China's outbound tourism growth fully returns to pre-pandemic levels, most of the tourism demand will come from high-income vaccination groups。Smaller, customised overseas Tours that precede large group Tours are likely to start earlier as they are easier to manage and less risky。Therefore, travel companies should develop strategies for this group to make travelers feel safe and protected while traveling。