In the first three quarters of this year, whether from the perspective of regional distribution, cyclical evolution trend or supply and demand structure, the downward pressure on the global economy is increasing, and economic growth is slowing down quarter by quarter。The US dollar index strongly broke through the 110 mark, the yields of long-term and short-term government bonds in many countries inverted, and the sovereign debt risks of some emerging economies increased。The "Economic and Financial Outlook Report for the fourth Quarter of 2022" released by the Research Institute of the Bank of China on September 28 predicted that with the monetary policy tightening and demand falling in major countries, especially the United States, the downward pressure on the global economy will increase and gradually approach the tipping point of recession。While inflationary pressures have eased, they remain well above pre-COVID-19 levels。Global interest rate center trend upward, US dollar and euro offshore liquidity tightening, the international financial market will remain in a state of shock。
According to the report, due to the current COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, energy shortages, high inflation, monetary policy tightening, falling demand and other multiple factors, the global economic growth momentum is weakening。In August 2022, the JP Morgan Global manufacturing and services PMI indices were 50 respectively.3%和49.2%, respectively, down 3% from the year's high.4和4.8 percentage points, indicating a significant deterioration in growth。This trend can be deeply observed from space, time, structure and other dimensions。
From a spatial perspective, both developed and emerging economies face downside risks, with the risk of recession in Europe and the United States greater。In order to curb the rise in inflation, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly raised interest rates sharply, bringing greater pressure on household consumption and business investment in the United States, and the United States has fallen into a technical recession in the first half of 2022, and may turn into a full recession in the future。The euro zone, which faces more recessionary pressure than the United States, could be the first to fall into recession in the fourth quarter。Inflation in the euro zone has become more stubborn due to energy shortages and shows no sign of easing despite a vigorous tightening by the European Central Bank, which raised interest rates by 75 basis points。The energy shortage has a great impact on industrial production in the eurozone, raising the production cost of manufacturing, many enterprises have been forced to reduce production or stop production, and the output of glass manufacturing, steel, chemical and automobile industries in Germany, the "locomotive" of the eurozone economy, has decreased。GDP growth in advanced economies is expected to be 1. 1 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter.2%, down 0.0% from the third quarter.5 percentage points, annual GDP growth of 2.About 3%, down 3 percentage points from 2021。In 2022, the growth momentum of emerging economies also weakened, and the economic growth rate was significantly lower than that of 2021, but the overall performance was better than that of developed economies, although the year-on-year growth rate fell significantly in the second quarter, but the third and fourth quarters will pick up slightly。It is expected that after the second quarter of 2023, emerging economies will gradually recover growth momentum, and the year-on-year growth rate will be close to the second half of 2021, and the rebound is stronger than that of developed economies。
From the time dimension, since the outbreak of the epidemic, the world's major economies have experienced the economic cycle cycle of "recession - recovery - depression or second recession"。In some major economies, the characteristics of "stagflation" have emerged, that is, "economic growth has slowed down, and inflation has continued to rise".It is expected that in the fourth quarter of this year, under the influence of factors such as accelerated tightening of monetary policy and falling demand in major economies, the economic recovery situation will shift to the trend of "slowing economic growth and gradually falling inflation"。Beginning in the second quarter of 2023, emerging economies will take the lead in turning to the characteristics of "faster economic growth and sustained decline in inflation"。
From a structural perspective, the global economy faces dual constraints of supply and demand, but the supply shock has weakened and the demand shock has increased。On the supply side, global supply chain pressure has eased, but supply chain bottlenecks still exist;At the demand level, the negative impact on both domestic and external demand is increasing。In terms of domestic demand, all economies are currently facing the impact of the epidemic, inflation and monetary tightening, and economic growth is more uncertain。In terms of external demand, it is expected that the growth rate of international trade will peak and fall, and global investment will remain sluggish。
(Article from International Business Daily)