The National Bureau of Statistics released April CPI (consumer price index) and PPI (producer price index) data on May 11。Data show that CPI rose by 0.1%, a decrease of 0.1%； PPI同比下降3.6%, a decrease of 0.5%。Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the market supply was generally sufficient in April, and consumer demand gradually recovered。Affected by a higher comparison base in the same period last year, the year-on-year growth of CPI and PPI continued to slow down in April this year。
Prices of fresh vegetables, fruits and pork fell
Low CPI operation
Specifically, CPI in April rose by 0.1%, down 0 percent from the previous month.Six percentage points。In food, poultry meat, fresh fruit, edible oil and pork prices rose by 6.7%、5.3%、4.8%和4.0%, the increase has fallen;The price of fresh vegetables fell by 13.5%, the decline widened by 2.Four percentage points。In non-food, travel services recovered better, and the price of air tickets, hotel accommodation, tourism and transportation rental increased by 7.2%～28.Between 7%;Prices of industrial consumer goods fell by 1.5%, the decline expanded by 0.7 percent, with gasoline and diesel prices down 10 percent each.6%和11.5%, the decline increased by 4.0和4.Two percentage points。
"The year-on-year increase in CPI in April further narrowed, mainly due to the accelerated decline in vegetable prices in food items;In the non-food items, affected by the downward impact of international crude oil prices, domestic gasoline and diesel prices fell significantly, in addition to the "price war" in the automotive industry also restricted the growth of CPI to a certain extent。Star Map Financial Research Institute senior researcher Fu Yifu told the International Business daily reporter。
"The current actual consumption intensity is weak, highlighted by the fact that after deducting volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI, which more closely reflects the current overall price level, continued to be at 0 year-on-year in April..The low level of 7%。Oriental Jincheng chief macro analyst Wang Qing told the International Business Daily reporter，Prices are the result of the balance between supply and demand，In the context of relatively stable supply side，CPI，In particular, core CPI inflation was low，Indicating that the current consumption rebound is relatively moderate - since March, the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods has risen sharply to 10 percent.6%, mainly due to the low base of the same period last year;Excluding the low base factor, the four-year average growth rate for March was 4.At 5%, it is equivalent to about half the normal pre-epidemic growth level。This means that the next step in the promotion of consumption in the policy space is larger, the urgency is also strong。
"Overall, although the current price has not entered the typical deflationary range, it does face the pressure of 'deflation-like', mainly because the economy is facing 'internal impetus is not strong, and demand is still insufficient' after the epidemic recovery stage.。To ensure sustained improvement in economic performance and stronger internal driving force, we need to increase policy easing at a timely and appropriate time。Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, told the International Business Daily。
Looking forward to the trend of CPI in May, Fu Yifu believes that the probability of year-on-year CPI growth will still be at a low level, and low inflation will continue in the short term, but from the overall environment, the current strong recovery of the national economy has been shown, consumer confidence is in a warming trend, and the risk of falling into deflation is controllable。However, for the policy side, it is still necessary to continue to expand consumer consumption and boost consumer confidence, and monetary policy can also be further adjusted when necessary to stabilize the growth and repair of the national economy。
PPI continued to weaken
It will continue to fall in the short term
In April, affected by the volatility of international commodity prices, the overall weak demand in domestic and foreign markets and the relatively high comparison base of the same period last year, PPI fell by 0.5%, down 3.6%。
On a month-on-month basis, the PPI turned from flat to down 0.5%。Dong Lijuan said that affected by the fluctuations in international crude oil prices, the prices of domestic oil, coal and other fuel processing industries fell 2.3 percent, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing prices fell 1.1%。Steel, cement and other industries overall supply is sufficient, but demand is not as expected, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry prices fell 1.0%, cement manufacturing price decreased by 0.1%。Coal production capacity continued to be released, coupled with imports are still large, coal mining and washing industry prices fell 4.0%。
On a year-on-year basis, the PPI fell by 3.6%, an increase from the previous month.One percentage point。The expansion of the year-on-year decline was mainly due to the higher comparison base of oil, ferrous metals and other industries in the same period last year, as well as the recent weak domestic and foreign demand。
"From the perspective of domestic production and market demand, although the overall trend of steady recovery, but considering the current commodity prices are still high, some enterprises are still facing high cost pressure.。Affected by the subsequent decline in international commodity prices and other factors, PPI will continue to fall in the short term, but in the medium and long term, with the further recovery of the domestic economy, the probability of PPI year-on-year decline will gradually narrow。"Fu Yifu analysis said。
Wen Bin said that due to the decline in international commodity prices and the lack of support from the domestic demand side, PPI growth in the second quarter is expected to continue to fall。In the second half of the year, with the gradual recovery of carry-over factors and the stabilization of the domestic economy, the PPI monthly year-on-year decline is expected to narrow。
(Source: International Business Daily)