The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs recently released the mid-year update report on the World Economic Situation and Prospects for 2023, which revised the world economic growth forecast for 2023 from 1.9% to 2.3 percent, bringing the 2024 growth forecast down from 2.7% down to 2.5%。
The surveyed experts said that the current world economic recovery still faces severe challenges, and multiple challenges and crises are intertwined。All parties need to work together to respond and accelerate the recovery of the world economy。
Opportunities and challenges coexist
According to the report, the world economy in 2023 is in better shape than previously predicted: advanced economies will grow by 1.0%, up from a forecast of 0% at the start of the year.4%;Developing economies will grow by 4.1 percent, slightly higher than the 3 percent forecast at the start of the year.9%;The least developed economies will grow by 4.1 percent, down from a forecast of 4 percent at the start of the year.It is also well below the 7% annual growth rate needed to achieve the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals。
The report will 2023 China's economic growth forecast from the beginning of the forecast 4.8% to 5.3 percent, reducing the growth forecast for the United States and the European Union from 0 percent.4%、0.2% up to 1.1%、0.9%。Among other major economies, Japan's 2023 growth is expected to be lower than predicted at the beginning of the year;The UK and Russia will shrink, but by more than predicted at the start of the year;Brazil's economic growth is expected to be slightly higher than predicted at the start of the year。
Li Chunding, professor of Economics and Management College of China Agricultural University, told the International Business Daily reporter that the current situation of world economic growth is an opportunity with risks, and it is expected to gradually emerge from inflation and downturn, and will accelerate recovery and growth in the second half of the year。In terms of opportunities，The easing of global inflation and the gradual easing of monetary tightening in developed countries，To inject new impetus into world economic recovery;The world economy will enter a period of accelerated recovery after the epidemic，Promote the growth of the world economy;In addition，The new technological revolution caused by digital technology and artificial intelligence will become an important driving force for accelerating the development of the world economy。In terms of risks, inflation and monetary tightening policies lead to sluggish global demand and sluggish economic growth, and may trigger the risk of financial crisis in developed countries and debt risk in developing countries。In addition, the partial disruption of global value chains and production chains brought about by the epidemic has affected the international division of labor and global trade and investment to a certain extent, and needs to be gradually restored。
In an interview with the International Business Daily reporter, the Ministry of Commerce Research Institute researcher Careful said that at present, the world economic growth prospects are more optimistic than at the beginning of the year。Much of this optimism comes from the Chinese economy gaining momentum。Along with the recovery of China's economy, countries with close economic and trade relations with China generally have stronger growth expectations。This not only comes from the support of China's production and supply for the economic development of these countries, but also from the strong attraction of China's huge market for the export of products from these countries。
Data show that China's gross domestic product grew by 4. 4 percent in the first quarter of this year.5%。In April, China's economic operation continued to recover to a good trend, including the total import and export of goods increased by 8.9%, trade structure continued to improve。
However, the world economic recovery still faces the real and possible threat of trade protectionism, which seriously affects the demand for the recovery of international trade and is not conducive to the overall recovery of the world economy。Thorough theory。
Work together to promote recovery
The world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century. The world economy is facing both the urgent need for post-pandemic recovery and the overlapping challenges and crises。The report also pointed out that the world economy is likely to enter a long-term stage of low growth due to factors such as the delay of the epidemic, the Ukraine crisis, climate change and changes in the macroeconomic situation。
Zhou said that to cope with challenges and promote recovery, all parties should make joint efforts in four aspects: establishing interconnection, promoting rules-based economic and trade cooperation, fully releasing the driving force of economic development and promoting innovative development。Therefore, in the face of pressure, we will not resort to beggar-thy-neighbor policies or suppress each other, and the world economy will have further momentum for growth this year. This is very important for all parties to unleash their own development potential and cope with environmental changes。
Otherwise, it may have a more serious impact on the recovery of the world economy, bring more obvious impact on small and medium-sized enterprises and individuals, and increase the risk of unstable economic development and unbalanced regional development。
Li Chunding also said that the recovery and development of the world economy requires concerted efforts of all countries to control possible risks and enhance growth momentum。First, we should continue to promote trade and investment liberalization。At the multilateral level, WTO reform and possible trade and investment liberalization should be promoted. At the regional level, high-level and high-standard free trade areas should be promoted. Bilateral economic and trade cooperation should also be strengthened。Second, we need to deepen cooperation in global economic governance, maintain world economic stability, and promote global trade and investment cooperation to promote common development of the global economy。Third, we should encourage scientific and technological innovation and progress, share the fruits of scientific and technological progress, and foster new growth points for the world economy。In addition, we need to jointly address major issues in the current world economic development, including inflation and financial risks, climate change, hunger and inequality, and promote common development of the world economy。
(Source: International Business Daily)