"In the first half of the year, in the face of the severe test brought by the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic and the complex and volatile domestic and foreign environment, China's economy first fell and then rose, the second quarter of economic growth from negative to positive, the main indicators recovered, the economic operation steadily recovered, the basic livelihood of the people is strong, the market expectations are generally good, and the overall social development is stable.。Liu Aihua, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, introduced at the press conference on the operation of the national economy in the first half of the year held by the new Office on July 16, preliminary accounting, gross domestic product (GDP) in the first half of the year was 45,661.4 billion yuan, calculated at comparable prices, down 1.6%。By quarter, the first quarter fell by 6.8%, up 3% in the second quarter.2%。On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP grew by 11.5%。
Economic growth recovered in the first half of the year
Liu Aihua said that the characteristics of economic operation in the first half of the year are mainly reflected in five aspects: First, the main indicators gradually rebounded。On a quarterly basis, GDP in the second quarter grew by 3.2%, down 6% from the first quarter.8% turned negative into positive;The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 8. 8% from the first quarter.4 percent to growth 4.4%;The value added of the service industry decreased by 5. 5% from the first quarter.2 percent to growth 1.9%;The decline in total retail sales of consumer goods in the second quarter was 15 percent narrower than that in the first quarter.1 percentage point;The decline in fixed-asset investment in the first half of the year was 13 percent narrower than that in the first quarter.0 percent。Second, employment prices were generally stable。Third, the basic livelihood of the people was ensured。Fourth, emerging sectors are gaining momentum。Fifth, market expectations are generally positive。
"Overall, in the first half of the year, China's economy gradually overcame the adverse impact of the epidemic, and the economic operation showed a recovery growth and steady recovery trend, and the resilience and vitality of development were further demonstrated.。At the same time, Liu Aihua stressed that because the main indicators of GDP and industry, services, consumption, investment and other fields in the first half of the year are still in the decline range, the economic growth rate recovery in the second quarter is still a recovery growth。"The impact of the epidemic has not yet been fully recovered, and we still need to work hard to bring the economy back to normal levels.。”
Suning Financial Research Institute senior researcher Tao Jin said in an interview with the International Business Daily reporter，In the difficult process of recovery from the impact of the pandemic，China's economic operation has gradually shown two levels of differentiation: first, the development speed of different industries and the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain is differentiated，The space for the development of science and technology industries has been opened up，Traditional industries were hit hard;Second, competition within the industry intensifies，Increased concentration。
Tao Jin further analysis, this differentiation is mainly reflected in three aspects: first, the recovery of the production side is faster than the demand side。In the early stage, the resumption of work and production policy was carried out smoothly, and the production side resumed work and production was relatively good, but the recovery speed of the demand side represented by consumption was slightly slower。Second, the investment side recovered faster than the consumption side。Fixed asset investment has recovered rapidly with the support of proactive fiscal policies, but the overall policy to promote consumption lacks a starting point, and consumption recovery shows inertia。Third, there are also differences in consumption, investment and supply。The outbreak of the epidemic exacerbated the differences in supply and demand operation among consumer industries, and some optional consumer industries were slow to recover due to the loss of demand.There is little room for real estate investment expansion, and infrastructure construction is still an important highlight of investment.The profitability of private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises remained good, but the level of production activity was still under pressure。
Sustained economic recovery in the second half of the year is supported
Liu Aihua said，From the first half of the year, especially in the second quarter of the recovery of various economic indicators，The sustained economic recovery in the second half of the year is supported. First, the steady economic recovery in the first half of the year has laid a solid foundation for sustained recovery in the second half of the year.Second, many new industries, business forms and models have emerged during the epidemic，Will provide strong support for continued economic recovery;Third, the effects of macro policies will be further evident。
"From these favorable conditions, we are confident of a sustained economic recovery in the second half of the year.。At the same time, there is a foundation, potential and conditions for economic recovery to be realized。Liu Aihua said, but we must also see that the current overseas epidemic is still spreading rapidly, the restart of the world economy and trade is difficult, the recovery of domestic demand is currently subject to certain constraints, and the pressure to stabilize enterprises and ensure employment is relatively large。"Therefore, it is necessary to adhere to the bottom line thinking, fully understand the breadth, complexity, and sustainability of the impact of the epidemic, pay close attention to the implementation of policies around the work of the 'six stability' and the implementation of the 'six guarantees', and strive to complete the goals and tasks of economic and social development throughout the year.。”
Tao Jin believes that in the second half of the year, two factors may affect the future economic trend: one is the fluctuation of the real estate market and investment, and the other is the boost of domestic demand。"Although real estate has not become a driving force for the economy in the first half of the year, its own risks have attracted the attention of policymakers.。The recent tightening of real estate regulation policies in cities such as Shenzhen is precisely because policymakers have seen fluctuations in the real estate market in some cities。In addition, the recovery of demand in China's internal industrial sector is very optimistic, and the probability of future consumption can gradually replace the industrial sector and become the main force to promote sustained economic recovery。”
In the view of Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC International, in the second half of the year, China's economic "inner cycle" is expected to enter a period of acceleration, the growth rate is expected to quickly return to the long-term central level, and the comparative advantage under the epidemic will continue to highlight。On the one hand, consumption repair margin accelerated。It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods will continue to rebound in the second half of the year, and the probability of turning positive in the third quarter。On the other hand, monetary policy is flexible and moderate。The domestic RRR reduction and interest rate reduction tools need to balance the policy delay and space reserve, which is expected to gradually land in a small and multi-frequency manner in the third quarter。
(This article is reproduced from International Business Daily)